How is Mexico's probability to advance calculated? To measure Mexico's probability to advance (win, score 2nd place) after 4 group matches have been played, we simulate all possible results of last two remaining matches. Assuming not more 5 goals can be scored by one team. So, we simulate results such as: 5:0, 5:1, 5:2, ... 0:0, ... 1:5, 0:5 for both remaining matches and we observe how many results (out of all) give chances to advance (win, be 2nd).
Note, this is not very sophisticated algorithm (e.g. - we assume all results are equally probable regardless of teams skills) - do not use it for betting purposes.
Graphical Analysis of Teams Rankings in Group F after 4 out of 6 matches
Each square represents different scores of both remaining matches in the Group F- South Korea vs. Germany and Mexico vs. Sweden. Colors indicate advancing teams (see legend below). Table assumes, not more than 5 goals will be scored by one team.
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