This section will be available after 4 matches out of 6 have been completed.
Team
After 4 matches chances to:
Advance
Win
be Runners-Up
Colombia
48.6%
24.3%
24.3%
Japan
85%
35.2%
49.8%
Senegal
67.6%
42.1%
25.5%
Poland
0%
0%
0%
How is the probability to advance calculated? To measure the probability to advance (win, score 2nd place) after 4 matches have been played, we simulate all possible results of last two remaining matches. Assuming not more 5 goals can be scored by one team. So, we simulate results such as: 5:0, 5:1, 5:2, ... 0:0, ... 1:5, 0:5 for both remaining matches and we observe how many results (out of all) give chances to advance (win, be 2nd).
Note, this is not very sophisticated algorithm (e.g. - we assume all results are equally probable regardless of teams skills) - do not use it for betting purposes.
Graphical Analysis of Teams Rankings in Group H after 4 out of 6 matches
Each square represents different scores of both remaining matches in the Group H - Japan vs. Poland and Senegal vs. Colombia. Colors indicate advancing teams (see legend below). Table assumes, not more than 5 goals will be scored by one team.