This section will be available after 4 matches out of 6 have been completed.
Team
After 4 matches chances to:
Advance
Win
be Runners-Up
Sweden
50.5%
32.7%
17.8%
Mexico
83.7%
58.3%
25.4%
South Korea
16.2%
0%
16.2%
Germany
49.5%
9%
40.6%
How is the probability to advance calculated? To measure the probability to advance (win, score 2nd place) after 4 matches have been played, we simulate all possible results of last two remaining matches. Assuming not more 5 goals can be scored by one team. So, we simulate results such as: 5:0, 5:1, 5:2, ... 0:0, ... 1:5, 0:5 for both remaining matches and we observe how many results (out of all) give chances to advance (win, be 2nd).
Note, this is not very sophisticated algorithm (e.g. - we assume all results are equally probable regardless of teams skills) - do not use it for betting purposes.
Graphical Analysis of Teams Rankings in Group F after 4 out of 6 matches
Each square represents different scores of both remaining matches in the Group F- South Korea vs. Germany and Mexico vs. Sweden. Colors indicate advancing teams (see legend below). Table assumes, not more than 5 goals will be scored by one team.