How is Brazil's probability to advance calculated? To measure Brazil's probability to advance (win, score 2nd place) after 4 group matches have been played, we simulate all possible results of last two remaining matches. Assuming not more 5 goals can be scored by one team. So, we simulate results such as: 5:0, 5:1, 5:2, ... 0:0, ... 1:5, 0:5 for both remaining matches and we observe how many results (out of all) give chances to advance (win, be 2nd).
Note, this is not very sophisticated algorithm (e.g. - we assume all results are equally probable regardless of teams skills) - do not use it for betting purposes.
Graphical Analysis of Teams Rankings in Group E after 4 out of 6 matches
Each square represents different scores of both remaining matches in the Group E- Serbia vs. Brazil and Switzerland vs. Costa Rica. Colors indicate advancing teams (see legend below). Table assumes, not more than 5 goals will be scored by one team.
How to Read This Graph
Brazil - if they don't lose (win or draw against Serbia), they will be promoted to the knockout stage as winners (red, gray) or runners-up (orange), depending on Switzerland - Costa Rica match result.
They can even lose to Serbia and will be promoted (blue and black).
Switzerland - if they win, they will be promoted as winners (if Brazil lose their match (yellow), draw (orange) or win but score less goals than Switzerland (orange)).
Switzerland can draw or even lose their match and be promoted (gree and red)
Serbia - if Serbia win their match against Brazil, they will be promoted as a winner (green, blue, black) or runners-up (yellow),
if they lose, they have no chances to advance (orange, red). If they draw against Brazil, they have still chances to advance (gray) but that depends on score of the Serbia - Brazil match .
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